Britain leaving the EU: Hard Brexit could cost Europe and UK citizens up to 57 billion euro annually – VoxEurop (English)

If the United Kingdom were to leave the European Union without a new deal, it could lead to billions of euro in losses to the European Union and British citizens.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://voxeurop.eu/en/2019/brexit-5122788

The impacts of the UK leaving EU are exaggerated; probably because those who formulate such opinions don’t have a direct experience with splitting a union (or a country) and are lazy to search for similar cases elsewhere. But the example of splitting Czechoslovakia, economies of which were very entangled including the single currency, shows that nothing drastic happened. Even the initial violence during splitting Yugoslavia settled down and the countries now exist independently (including tiny Montenegro), more or less mutually cooperating.

Therefore, I assume that there may be initial chaos before the new processes are implemented and businesses as well as citizens adopt to the new situation. But it will calm down in a relatively short time. The only question is thus paradoxically how the Brexit will affect relationships among various citizen groups in Northern Ireland but this is not related to continental Europe.

As for the costs: there will surely be initial adoption costs but then it depends on the concrete tariffs. The British government has already indicated that most products will have zero tariffs in order not to increase living costs for citizens. Tariffs make sense to protect your producers but since the UK is not able to cover supplies in many product types, tariffs on such products make no sense because they have nobody to protect… So paradoxically, the main direct costs will be with additional bureaucracy administering different legislative setting.

Has anyone ever asked themselves why a country like Britain should vote to leave the EU if it’s such a wonderful organisation to belong to?

Remember that its not May and her merry men who are pushing BREXIT but they British People themselves and if you DO manage to trap us in your infernal organisation, you should prepare for an anti-Europe backlash. (Note … Anti Europe, NOT an anti-EU backlash.)

You Continentals really don’t understand the British at all, do you?

[sylvesterthecat] Remember that its not May and her merry men who are pushing BREXIT but they British People themselves

Why are most British politicians then eagerly refusing to admit “People’s Vote” to let “British People” choose which type of BrExit they want (if any). If you are so confident that British citizens wish to leave EU, they will surely confirm that fact and Brexiteers have nothing to worry about, do they?

[sylvesterthecat] if you DO manage to trap us in your infernal Organisation

Ich weiß nicht, woher du deine Befürchtungen hast. Niemand will Britannien zwingen, in der EU zu bleiben. Die Briten haben sich - aus welchen Gründen auch immer - mit knapper Mehrheit für einen Austritt entschieden - und so soll es auch geschehen. Vergiss nicht, Britannien ist auf eigenen Wunsch der EU beigetreten. Und niemand macht ihm das Recht streitig, wieder auszutreten. Dieses Recht steht auch jedem anderen EU-Mitglied zu.

Machen wir uns nichts vor. Keine europäische Nation gehört der EU aus Idealismus an. Das gilt insbesondere für die neuen Mitglieder in Süd- und Osteuropa. Für sie waren die finanziellen und sonstigen Vorteile ausschlaggebend. Wer wie Polen jährlich mit mehr als 10 Milliarden Euro von den Nettozahlern der EU gesponsert wird, denkt natürlich im Traum nicht daran, die EU zu verlassen.

Ob der Brexit für Britannien sich auf Dauer rechnet, wird sich in Zukunft entscheiden. Aber die Briten sollten eines bedenken: Sie sind längst keine globale Weltmacht mehr. Sie sind allenfalls eine Mittelmacht mit begrenztem Radius. Der Rückblick auf das Empire ist lediglich eine Sentimentalität. Gegenüber den globalen Giganten wie die USA und China werden sie stets den Kürzeren ziehen. Sie sollten auch nicht sosehr auf ihre besonderen Beziehungen zu den USA bauen. Freundschaft ist keine Kategorie zwischen Staaten. Die Beziehungen zwischen Staaten werden von Interessen bestimmt.

[sylvesterthecat] You Continentals really don’t understand the British at all, do you?

Wer versteht schon wen in Europa? Das gegenseitige Verstehen und das Interesse daran ist sehr begrenzt. Jede europäische Nation lebt sozusagen in ihrer eigenen Welt. Man braucht nur die nationalen Medien zu vergleichen. Themen, die in französischen Zeitungen eine Schlagzeile wert sind, findet man in deutschen Zeitungen vergeblich - und umgekehrt. Es gibt keine europäische Öffentlichkeit und Interessensübereinstimmung. Sie ist bestenfalls sporadisch. Die gleiche Sprache, die kulturelle Nähe und die ethnische Verwandtschaft spielen dabei eine herausragende Rolle. Während die deutschsprachigen Staaten unabhängig von ihrer EU-Mitgliedschaft einen gemeinsamen Kultur- und Öffentlichkeitsraum bilden und damit eine emotionale Nähe schaffen, bestehen zwischen Deutschland und Frankreich und noch stärker zwischen Deutschland einerseits und Polen und Tschechien andererseits kulturelle Barrieren und emotionale Distanzen.

[Flatus Vocis] Why are most British politicians then eagerly refusing to admit “People’s Vote” to let “British People” choose which type of BrExit they want (if any). If you are so confident that British citizens wish to leave EU.

Damn right the British people object to a second referendum. They gave their decision in 2016 and expect the result to be .implemented.As for re-running a referendum jus because you didn’t like the result of the first is so typical of the EU

[sylvesterthecat] As for re-running a referendum jus because you didn’t like the result of the first is so typical of the EU

It’s not because EU does not like it but because British politicians - the elected representatives of the British citizens - have very differing views how to leave EU (if at all) and obviously are not able to agree on a generally acceptable solution. Therefore going back to people to decide is not only legitimate but it is also the cleanest solution that would prevent shattering the British political system (we can see how both major British political parties are falling apart on the Brexit issue).

[alcofribas] EU can sometimes stop to be stupid when united, and then appears to all as a very powerful negociator.

Actually, the “Irish backstop” is in the Withdrawal Agreement not because of EU unity (as Euro-optimists claim) nor EU evilness (as Euro-skeptics claim) but because the British negotiators were aware that Northern Ireland is a very explosive territory where the mutual animosities of Republicans and Royalist have only been put asleep by the GFA but any inconsiderate change can awaken them again. We could see first examples of explosions in (London)Derry as well as mail bombs. This is really unrelated to EU.

[sylvesterthecat] They gave their decision in 2016 and expect the result to be. implemented.

Don’t you think that the Brexiteers actually don’t want to leave EU? They must rhetorically sound they do but because their key program is to fight against EU, they realize that after leaving EU they would lose their raison d’être. For example, I’m reading that Nigel Farage has taken leadership of the Brexit Party and is looking forward to running in EP elections this May:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47668067

Consider this … Imagine the EU manages to lock us back in the EU dungeon, what are the levels of cooperation do you expect from us in future.

The EU/UK game has changed. Three years of ill will and hatred has taken its toll on both sides, so much so that each side views the other as the enemy.

The EU thinks it has the upper hand (negotiating with Treacherous Tessie is a doddle) but Britain won’t always be ruled by an idiot and when it happens, as it surely will, look to yourselves. I reckon that that EU will have an impossible job trying to tame the British People. We are “poison” and we’re in the mood for revenge.

Do yourselves a favour and expell us from the EU. …You all know it makes sense!

[sylvesterthecat] We are “poison” and we’re in the mood for revenge.

If the poison puts you in the mood, do not lose the chance to apply it in the right direction, the start of the Brexit was a reaction against the EU was because you did not want to impose immigration quotas, then came the referendum, with a trick question and this result.

Look at the good side, now you will be free to react without conditioning or explaining, who reacts is that he is alive, do not waste time arguing among us.

Some people consider politeness a weak point and they take advantage, it’s that hard, if immigrants are allowed to have more descendants than the British, at a younger age than a Briton would and if you also give them more rights that they would never recognize us in their countries in reverse, accepting this tacitly is the beginning of the end, the Brexit only serves to distract our attention.

I’ve just been in the UK this week, I’ve seen it by myself, you’re used to having an international population and you think everyone is the same, but thinking like that is a mistake, not everyone is the same, when they do not behave the same in equal situation, this Aristotle was right, I prefer to say it when it still has remedy - although to tell the truth I do not win a friend now - to give me some reason right, when it’s too late.

[Hipatia] Brexit was a reaction against the EU was because you did not want to impose immigration quotas.

You seem to believe I have some kind of fixation on immigration, which is odd since I’ve checked all my posts on this thread and I’ve not even mentioned immigration.

I DO admit to having a mighty concern about how my country is governed and who governs it. Furthermore, I will fight ‘tooth and nail’ to prevent any foreign takeover of Britain. Call it an obsession if you will, but “Government by those who wish us ill” is not acceptable.

Fortunately, I’m not alone.

[sylvesterthecat] Fortunately, I’m not alone.

But unfortunately for us we have a political class that refuses to enact Brexit. All the talk a couple of years ago from Remain politicians that they would honour the referendum result has proved to be false.

The Withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May is unacceptable for any nation that desires to be sovereign. I wish we would just leave the EU now without a deal. But now that there is an extension to the end of October I sincerely believe that Brexit will not happen at all. 17.4 million voters have been betrayed.

[aditec] Ich weiß nicht, woher du deine Befürchtungen hast. Niemand will Britannien zwingen, in der EU zu bleiben. Die Briten haben sich – aus welchen Gründen auch immer – mit knapper Mehrheit für einen Austritt entschieden – und so soll es auch geschehen. Vergiss nicht, Britannien ist auf eigenen Wunsch der EU beigetreten. Und niemand macht ihm das Recht streitig, wieder auszutreten. Dieses Recht steht auch jedem anderen EU-Mitglied zu.

The withdrawal agreement seeks to trap the UK inside the Customs Union using the “Backstop”. The pretext for the Backstop is to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but its real reason is prevent the UK from making its own trade deals. The UK could not exit the Backstop and hence the Customs Union without the permission of the EU. This is an intolerable demand. Would Germany accept such a condition aditec?

[Muddy Retriever] The pretext for the Backstop is to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland but its real reason is prevent the UK from making its own trade deals.

You’re right that in order not to violate the GFA and open the Pandora’s box of hostilities among citizens of Northern Ireland while preserving unity of the UK (including NI), the future relation arrangement between the UK and EU will have to provide a form of the customs union.

But renowned British economists including Simon Wren-Lewis who worked for British Treasury in the past and is an Oxford scholar now, argue that “Global Britain” concept is an unrealistic fantasy, see the analysis here:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/03/brexiteers-are-stopping-brexit-because-they-believe-fantasy-global-britain

And this is also the main reason for the failed Brexit: British representatives were not able to agree on what is best for the UK: the division is even inside both major parties and even within the British government. Any solution then makes half of the politicians and citizens upset.

[Flatus Vocis] You’re right that in order not to violate the GFA and open the Pandora’s box of hostilities among citizens of Northern Ireland while preserving unity of the UK (including NI), the future relation arrangement between the UK and EU will have to provide a form of the customs union.

I don’t agree. I think the border issue has been weaponized by Leo Varadkar, the Irish premier and the EU for political reasons. The Dutch customs expert Hans Maesson called it a “fictitious problem”. He said a hard border could be avoided by the use of electronic declarations, use of customs brokers and tax authorities carrying out customs inspections at company premises.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46213434

[Flatus Vocis] And this is also the main reason for the failed Brexit: British representatives were not able to agree on what is best for the UK: the division is even inside both major parties and even within the British government. Any solution then makes half of the politicians and citizens upset.

The problem is that British politicians are not representative of the people on Brexit. 75% of the former voted to Remain, 52% of the public voted to Leave. MP’s initially said that they would respect the result of the referendum. But many have spent the last few years undermining the UK’s position. We’ve also had the situation where former politicians like Tony Blair and Nick Clegg have been advising EU leaders on offering harsh terms to the UK in the hope that the referendum decision will be overturned.

The UK Government was unable to agree an acceptable deal with the EU. Therefore we should simply leave without one. However I know that there is no chance of this happening. My last hope was that Emmanuel Macron might block the extension but sadly he didn’t.

[Muddy Retriever] But unfortunately for us we have a political class that refuses to enact Brexit.

You are quite right Muddy, but I cherish the thought that the British People will not tolerate a Government that stands against the stated will of the same, British People.

Watch for fireworks starting in May, when the local elections ‘kick off’ the ‘’destruction of the British Government”. The year, 2019 looks to be an interesting electoral year with the EUro elections and almost certainly a General Election. Who else will feel the political drought I wonder?

[alcofribas] Europe owns a huge force to rebuild senseful and responsible european institutions : not clubs of national govs or of shareholders, all most stupids than the other, but European Citizens conscient to be not just local citizens of each part of the puzzle.

What a vision of Hell you paint. Don’t just cock-up in a local area but think big and foul up on an EU-wide with a place for every EU citizen in the great Labour Gang of Europe. Haven’t I heard of this approach to ‘Civic Building’ in the European past somewhere? Ah well, what goes around comes around, I suppose.